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OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 GAAP diluted EPS was $1.05 and C&I adjusted diluted EPS was $1.16; total revenue was $1.5B, up 9% year over year, driven by higher average receivables .
- Credit continued to inflect positively: consumer loan net charge-offs were 7.6% (down 7bps YoY) and 30+ delinquency fell to 5.76% (vs. 6.16% in Q4 2023), supporting management’s view that losses peaked in 1H24 .
- 2025 outlook initiated: managed receivables growth 5–8%, revenue growth 6–8%, C&I NCOs 7.5–8.0%, OpEx ratio ~6.6%; consumer loan yields expected flat to modestly higher, and interest expense/ANR to rise slightly .
- Funding remains a differentiator: issued $900M unsecured at 6.625% with “narrowest spreads” to date; added ~$900M auto ABS at ~5.5% cost; expanded forward flow to $900M annually through 2025 .
- Dividend maintained at $1.04 per share (annualized $4.16, ~7% yield referenced by management), a key stock reaction catalyst alongside improving credit trends and capital generation momentum .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Credit metrics improved: consumer loan net charge-offs fell year-over-year and early-stage delinquency trended better than seasonal norms; management reiterated losses peaked in 1H24 .
- Revenue and originations growth: Q4 revenue rose 9% YoY; originations reached $3.5B (+16% YoY), supported by constructive competitive environment and pricing actions .
- Funding execution: $900M unsecured at 6.625% achieved “narrowest spreads” to date, and strong demand for secured paper; expanded forward flow program enhances flexibility .
- Quote (CEO): “We feel great about our momentum going into 2025, with positive trends in both originations and credit…” .
- Quote (CFO): “Capital generation… totaled $183 million… primarily reflecting… net charge-offs, partially offset by higher interest income from portfolio growth” .
What Went Wrong
- Earnings compression vs prior year: GAAP diluted EPS declined to $1.05 from $1.38; net income fell to $126M from $165M YoY, reflecting higher provision and interest expense .
- Provision and operating costs elevated: provision rose to $523M (vs $446M YoY), and OpEx increased to $422M (+10% YoY), partly due to receivable growth and Foursight integration .
- Other revenue softness and macro caution: other revenue was down vs prior year; management maintained conservative reserve coverage (~11.5%) given inflation/unemployment uncertainty, limiting near-term reserve releases .
Financial Results
P&L by Quarter
YoY Comparatives (Q4)
C&I Segment (Non-GAAP)
Segment/Portfolio Breakdown
Key KPIs
Guidance Changes
Notes:
- Management reiterated improving credit trajectory and stability in reserve coverage (~11.5%) despite macro uncertainties; potential reserve coverage decline over time (~50bps) contingent on sustained improvement .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (prepared): “We expect that 2024 represented a cyclical low in earnings and will be followed by an upward trajectory in earnings and capital generation in 2025 and beyond.” .
- CEO (prepared): “Our 30 to 89 delinquency was 3.06%… down 22 basis points year-over-year… net charge-offs were 7.9%… much better than the trends we have seen… reinforcing our view that losses… peaked in the first half of 2024.” .
- CFO (prepared): “Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $126 million or $1.05 per diluted share… Capital generation totaled $183 million… Interest expense… was 5.3% of average net receivables… we expect this to increase slightly.” .
- CFO (prepared): “Operating expenses were $422 million, up 10%… Foursight acquisition and investment in our business.” .
- CEO (prepared): “We are… bringing to bear our deep understanding of the nonprime consumer… We have a lot of momentum going into 2025.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Credit outlook and guide: Confidence in sustaining improved delinquency and NCOs; 2025 NCO range depends on back-book runoff pace, roll rates, and macro; consumer loan NCOs expected ~40bps below C&I by 2025 as card matures .
- Yield trajectory: Modest consumer yield improvement from 22.2% guided; mix (auto vs personal) will drive realized yields .
- Reserve coverage: Coverage ~11.5% today; potential ~50bps decline over time as credit improves and macro uncertainty abates; card mix keeps coverage above consumer-only level .
- Competitive dynamics & channels: Constructive environment; OMF’s funding spreads and branch/digital omnichannel model remain differentiators; measured growth in auto franchise and independent dealer networks; selective pockets in cards .
- Whole loan sales: Forward flow expanded to $900M through 2025; viewed as additive funding diversification, not necessary; disciplined on economics .
- Recoveries: Remain strong (~$77M in Q4; ~1.3% of receivables), supporting lower realized loss content vs pre-pandemic .
Estimates Context
- Comparison to Wall Street consensus: S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus data was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to access limits; accordingly, beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Credit turning point appears durable; improving early-stage delinquency and stable-to-declining consumer NCOs should support earnings and capital generation growth through 2025, absent macro deterioration .
- Revenue growth is being driven by receivable expansion and pricing actions; near-term yield gains likely modest given auto mix, but pricing discipline remains intact .
- Funding advantage is intact and arguably improving (tightest unsecured spreads, robust ABS demand, expanded forward flow), reducing execution risk and supporting growth capacity .
- Expense discipline alongside reinvestment continues; OpEx ratio guided flat at ~6.6%, implying operating leverage opportunity if originations track toward the high end of guidance .
- Reserve releases are not near-term; management signals potential coverage decline over time (~50bps) if macro stabilizes and front-book performance persists—an upside lever later in the cycle .
- Dividend is secure and attractive (quarterly $1.04); management referenced ~7% annual yield at the time—income support plus improving fundamentals is a potential stock catalyst .
- Watch list: consumer yield/mix, back-book runoff pace, card loss normalization, and macro path for inflation/unemployment—all key variables for earnings trajectory and reserve coverage .
Sources: Q4 2024 press release and financial tables ; Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 with full tables ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) ; Q3 2024 transcript ; Q2 2024 transcript .