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OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP diluted EPS was $1.05 and C&I adjusted diluted EPS was $1.16; total revenue was $1.5B, up 9% year over year, driven by higher average receivables .
  • Credit continued to inflect positively: consumer loan net charge-offs were 7.6% (down 7bps YoY) and 30+ delinquency fell to 5.76% (vs. 6.16% in Q4 2023), supporting management’s view that losses peaked in 1H24 .
  • 2025 outlook initiated: managed receivables growth 5–8%, revenue growth 6–8%, C&I NCOs 7.5–8.0%, OpEx ratio ~6.6%; consumer loan yields expected flat to modestly higher, and interest expense/ANR to rise slightly .
  • Funding remains a differentiator: issued $900M unsecured at 6.625% with “narrowest spreads” to date; added ~$900M auto ABS at ~5.5% cost; expanded forward flow to $900M annually through 2025 .
  • Dividend maintained at $1.04 per share (annualized $4.16, ~7% yield referenced by management), a key stock reaction catalyst alongside improving credit trends and capital generation momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Credit metrics improved: consumer loan net charge-offs fell year-over-year and early-stage delinquency trended better than seasonal norms; management reiterated losses peaked in 1H24 .
  • Revenue and originations growth: Q4 revenue rose 9% YoY; originations reached $3.5B (+16% YoY), supported by constructive competitive environment and pricing actions .
  • Funding execution: $900M unsecured at 6.625% achieved “narrowest spreads” to date, and strong demand for secured paper; expanded forward flow program enhances flexibility .
    • Quote (CEO): “We feel great about our momentum going into 2025, with positive trends in both originations and credit…” .
    • Quote (CFO): “Capital generation… totaled $183 million… primarily reflecting… net charge-offs, partially offset by higher interest income from portfolio growth” .

What Went Wrong

  • Earnings compression vs prior year: GAAP diluted EPS declined to $1.05 from $1.38; net income fell to $126M from $165M YoY, reflecting higher provision and interest expense .
  • Provision and operating costs elevated: provision rose to $523M (vs $446M YoY), and OpEx increased to $422M (+10% YoY), partly due to receivable growth and Foursight integration .
  • Other revenue softness and macro caution: other revenue was down vs prior year; management maintained conservative reserve coverage (~11.5%) given inflation/unemployment uncertainty, limiting near-term reserve releases .

Financial Results

P&L by Quarter

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total revenue ($USD Billions)$1.4 $1.5 $1.5
Interest income ($USD Billions)$1.219 $1.282 $1.320
Total other revenues ($USD Millions)$174 $182 $160
Net interest income ($USD Millions)$922 $981 $1,009
Provision for finance receivable losses ($USD Millions)$575 $512 $523
Operating expenses ($USD Millions)$382 $401 $433
Net income ($USD Millions)$71 $157 $126
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.59 $1.31 $1.05

YoY Comparatives (Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Total revenue ($USD Billions)$1.4 $1.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.38 $1.05
Net income ($USD Millions)$165 $126
Interest expense ($USD Millions)$270 $311
Provision ($USD Millions)$446 $523

C&I Segment (Non-GAAP)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Adjusted pretax income ($USD Millions)163 202 185
Adjusted net income ($USD Millions)122 151 139
C&I adjusted diluted EPS ($USD)1.02 1.26 1.16
Operating expenses ($USD Millions)374 396 422
Total other revenues ($USD Millions)184 181 177

Segment/Portfolio Breakdown

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net finance receivables – personal loans ($USD Millions)20,073 20,569 20,833
Net finance receivables – auto finance ($USD Millions)1,889 2,009 2,122
Net finance receivables – credit cards ($USD Millions)466 550 643
Net finance receivables – total C&I ($USD Millions)22,428 23,128 23,598

Key KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Managed receivables ($USD Billions)23.657 24.319 24.739
Originations ($USD Billions)3.582 3.712 3.504
Consumer loan yield (%)21.9 22.1 22.2
Allowance ratio (%)11.46 11.46 11.48
30+ delinquency ratio (%)5.45 5.63 5.76
90+ delinquency ratio (%)2.33 2.49 2.52
Net charge-off ratio – consumer loans (%)8.29 7.33 7.63
Capital generation – non-GAAP ($USD Millions)136 211 183

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Managed receivables growthFY 2025~5%–8%Initiated
Total revenue growthFY 2025~6%–8%Initiated
C&I net charge-offsFY 2025~7.5%–8.0% (seasonal: H1 above, H2 below)Initiated
Consumer loan yieldFY 2025Flat to modest improvement from Q4 22.2%Initiated
Interest expense / ANRFY 2025Slightly increasingInitiated
OpEx ratioFY 2025~6.6%Initiated
PBMC expenseFY 2025Low $50M per quarterInitiated
Dividend per shareQuarterly$1.04$1.04Maintained

Notes:

  • Management reiterated improving credit trajectory and stability in reserve coverage (~11.5%) despite macro uncertainties; potential reserve coverage decline over time (~50bps) contingent on sustained improvement .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Credit cycle & lossesFront book 76%; losses seasonal; peak losses expected 1H24 Front book 81%; delinquencies better than seasonal; peak losses 1H24 Front book 84%; consumer NCO 7.6% (‑7bps YoY); early DQ only +5bps QoQ; losses peaked 1H24 Improving
Yield & pricingConsumer yield ex-Foursight 22.4%; pricing +~100bps YoY Yield 22.1%; modest improvement expected Yield 22.2%; flat to modest improvement guided Modest upward
Funding & liquidity$1.9B raised; no unsecured maturities until Mar 2026 $750M unsecured social bond; strong demand $900M unsecured at 6.625% (“narrowest spreads”); ~$900M auto ABS ~5.5%; forward flow $900M Strengthening
Auto & card expansionAuto $2.2B; cards $466M; 600k accounts Auto $2.3B; cards +$84M; service calls down 40% YoY Auto +$105M QoQ; cards +$93M to $643M; measured growth Steady build
Competitive environmentConstructive; pricing power Constructive across products More competition but OMF maintains advantages (funding, spreads) Constructive/normalizing
Reserves & macroCoverage ~11.5%; steady Coverage steady; no releases yet Coverage ~11.5%; possible ~50bps lower over time if macro improves Steady; potential decline later

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared): “We expect that 2024 represented a cyclical low in earnings and will be followed by an upward trajectory in earnings and capital generation in 2025 and beyond.” .
  • CEO (prepared): “Our 30 to 89 delinquency was 3.06%… down 22 basis points year-over-year… net charge-offs were 7.9%… much better than the trends we have seen… reinforcing our view that losses… peaked in the first half of 2024.” .
  • CFO (prepared): “Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $126 million or $1.05 per diluted share… Capital generation totaled $183 million… Interest expense… was 5.3% of average net receivables… we expect this to increase slightly.” .
  • CFO (prepared): “Operating expenses were $422 million, up 10%… Foursight acquisition and investment in our business.” .
  • CEO (prepared): “We are… bringing to bear our deep understanding of the nonprime consumer… We have a lot of momentum going into 2025.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Credit outlook and guide: Confidence in sustaining improved delinquency and NCOs; 2025 NCO range depends on back-book runoff pace, roll rates, and macro; consumer loan NCOs expected ~40bps below C&I by 2025 as card matures .
  • Yield trajectory: Modest consumer yield improvement from 22.2% guided; mix (auto vs personal) will drive realized yields .
  • Reserve coverage: Coverage ~11.5% today; potential ~50bps decline over time as credit improves and macro uncertainty abates; card mix keeps coverage above consumer-only level .
  • Competitive dynamics & channels: Constructive environment; OMF’s funding spreads and branch/digital omnichannel model remain differentiators; measured growth in auto franchise and independent dealer networks; selective pockets in cards .
  • Whole loan sales: Forward flow expanded to $900M through 2025; viewed as additive funding diversification, not necessary; disciplined on economics .
  • Recoveries: Remain strong (~$77M in Q4; ~1.3% of receivables), supporting lower realized loss content vs pre-pandemic .

Estimates Context

  • Comparison to Wall Street consensus: S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus data was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to access limits; accordingly, beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Credit turning point appears durable; improving early-stage delinquency and stable-to-declining consumer NCOs should support earnings and capital generation growth through 2025, absent macro deterioration .
  • Revenue growth is being driven by receivable expansion and pricing actions; near-term yield gains likely modest given auto mix, but pricing discipline remains intact .
  • Funding advantage is intact and arguably improving (tightest unsecured spreads, robust ABS demand, expanded forward flow), reducing execution risk and supporting growth capacity .
  • Expense discipline alongside reinvestment continues; OpEx ratio guided flat at ~6.6%, implying operating leverage opportunity if originations track toward the high end of guidance .
  • Reserve releases are not near-term; management signals potential coverage decline over time (~50bps) if macro stabilizes and front-book performance persists—an upside lever later in the cycle .
  • Dividend is secure and attractive (quarterly $1.04); management referenced ~7% annual yield at the time—income support plus improving fundamentals is a potential stock catalyst .
  • Watch list: consumer yield/mix, back-book runoff pace, card loss normalization, and macro path for inflation/unemployment—all key variables for earnings trajectory and reserve coverage .

Sources: Q4 2024 press release and financial tables ; Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 with full tables ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) ; Q3 2024 transcript ; Q2 2024 transcript .